Sales Are UP?!! | OCTOBER Market Update

Holy smokes, October was rough! What happened to prices? October certainly took a hit in terms of prices—both Oakville and Burlington saw declines compared to 2023. It’s hard to ignore, and understandably, many homeowners are feeling concerned. But before we panic, let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

YTD & Last 12 Months...

First, it’s important to note that overall, the year-to-date and 12-month trends are much stronger than what we saw last month. Even though prices are down in October, the year-over-year (YOY) sales numbers show a big rebound:  

- Oakville: Sales up 35% YOY

- Burlington: Sales up 48% YOY

- Combined Oak/Burlington: Sales up 27-38% YOY  

This shows that, while October wasn’t great in terms of prices, the market is still quite active overall. More on that shortly…

Heading into 2025...

Should we panic about prices heading into 2025? I understand the worry, but based on where we stand today, I’m feeling much more optimistic. Sometimes it’s easy to overreact, especially with the constant churn of media and conflicting information. The key is not to get too caught up in short-term fluctuations.

As we look ahead to November and early Q1 2025, there are a few factors that make me think things will stabilize or even improve slightly:

1. Interest rates have been dropping!  

   The recent 50 basis point rate cut should have a positive impact, and we might see some additional buyers coming back into the market—particularly those who want to avoid the usual winter slowdown and don’t want to be hunting for homes in December and January.

2. Prices should stabilize for the rest of the year.  

   With the bulk of sales already completed this fall, we’re unlikely to see drastic price changes until early 2025. This is a good time for both buyers and sellers to adjust expectations accordingly.

3. Inventory is still high, but it's a good time for buyers to negotiate.  

   Even with the drop in interest rates, buyer demand will likely remain moderate as affordability continues to be a concern. That’s actually a great opportunity for buyers looking to negotiate and find a deal, particularly with more options available on the market.

Market Highlights...

- Sales Activity:

   - Oakville: Sales up 35% YOY and up 27% MOM

   - Burlington: Sales up 48% YOY and up 38% MOM

   - Overall: Sales up across the board, with a notable increase in activity from September to October.

- Pricing:

   - October prices in both Oakville and Burlington are down vs. 2023 levels. Not unexpected given the challenges of this year, but let’s not overreact. These declines are part of the cyclical nature of the market.

- Listings and Inventory:

   - Burlington saw a 9% increase in new listings vs. 2023, which suggests more options for buyers.

   - Oakville saw a slight 3% decrease in new listings, but overall inventory is up between 19-24% compared to last year.

- Days on Market (DOM) remain steady and normal for this time of year. Homes are taking longer to sell compared to the ultra-competitive market we saw in 2021-2022, but that’s expected during times of higher interest rates.

- Months of Inventory (MOI) is high, but still within balanced market territory. With current rates, we’re seeing 4-6 months of inventory, which indicates a balanced market. A seller's market would be below 2.5 months of inventory—so we’re far from that, but the market is still offering opportunities for both sides.

- 5-Year Average:  

   When we look at the last 5 years, prices are still up significantly—anywhere from 23% to 47% over the average for this period. Despite some ups and downs this year, we are still in a very positive overall trend.

Key Takeaways...

- No need to panic. October wasn’t ideal, but the broader trends are still solid. With interest rates stabilizing, we should see things moving back on track in 2025.

- Buyers: This is a great time to negotiate. With more inventory and less buyer competition, you have room to find deals.

- Sellers: The market is balanced, but prices likely won’t see drastic changes until Q1 2025. If you’re thinking of selling, now’s a good time to prep, but be prepared for a more moderate market.

Looking ahead to 2025, I feel confident that prices won’t plummet, but they’ll likely hold steady and see some slight upticks. The market will continue to adjust as interest rates fluctuate, but for now, we’re in a more stable place than many might realize. 

Stay tuned for the November update next month—it’ll be interesting to see how the market shifts after the recent rate drop!