Canadian Real Estate Outlook: Navigating Political Shifts Post-Election

With the recent federal election behind us, Canadians are closely watching how political shifts will shape the country’s housing market. Real estate remains a top concern, especially in a climate of affordability challenges, fluctuating interest rates, and evolving economic policies.

Policy Promises vs. Market Realities

The new government has pledged to improve housing affordability through increased supply, foreign buyer restrictions, and first-time homebuyer incentives. While these are positive steps, the actual impact will depend on execution, timelines, and support from provincial and municipal levels.

Cautious Confidence Among Buyers and Investors

Market confidence is fragile. Political changes often prompt hesitation, particularly among investors and move-up buyers who may wait to see how new policies will affect taxes, regulations, or lending rules. For first-time buyers, programs aimed at affordability could help—but only if inventory improves and interest rates remain manageable.

Local Snapshot: Burlington & Oakville Real Estate Performance

While federal changes may take time to influence national trends, local markets are already adjusting to economic and policy uncertainties. Here’s how Burlington and Oakville are performing in 2025 year-to-date:

Burlington

• Detached Homes

  • Avg Price: $1,503,486 (+6%)

  • Sales: -26%

  • New Listings: +17%

• Townhouses

  • Avg Price: $877,553 (+3%)

  • Sales: -37%

  • New Listings: +12%

• Condos

  • Avg Price: $622,166 (-8%)

  • Sales: -20%

  • New Listings: +28%

    
    

Despite price growth in detached homes and townhouses, Burlington is seeing a clear decline in sales across all property types. Meanwhile, inventory is rising—particularly for condos—which could lead to more negotiating room for buyers.

Oakville

• Detached Homes

  • Avg Price: $2,000,972 (-4%)

  • Sales: -45%

  • New Listings: +14%

• Townhouses

  • Avg Price: $1,065,009 (+3%)

  • Sales: -32%

  • New Listings: +41%

• Condos

  • Avg Price: $723,975 (+1%)

  • Sales: -48%

  • New Listings: +45%

    
    

Oakville’s market shows a dramatic slowdown in sales, especially in the condo segment, despite modest price increases. The surge in new listings suggests sellers are eager, but many are struggling to find buyers, making this an advantageous time for buyers prepared to act.

The Bottom Line

Canadian real estate is entering a transitional period. Political promises offer optimism, but their effects won’t be immediate. In the meantime, cities like Burlington and Oakville are seeing declining sales and rising listings—conditions that may favor buyers in the short term. As policies take shape and the market adjusts, staying informed will be critical for both buyers and sellers.